Interface News reporter | Liu Chenguang

Since the beginning of this weekBaccaratblackjackHong Kong stocks as a whole showed an upward trend. Both the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose sharply, the Hang Seng Index rose for five consecutive days, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose more than 13%.

Ye Yunkai, president of the Greater China Branch of the Australian Institute of Certified Public Accountants in 2024, told the Interface News that China's economic growth in the first quarter was better than expected, coupled with the fact that the Securities Regulatory Commission recently issued five major measures to support Hong Kong's capital market, bringing more convenience to investors. it also brings a positive atmosphere to the market. In addition, at present, the average price-to-earnings ratio of Hong Kong stocks is relatively low and is attractive for investment.

He said that the future trend of Hong Kong stocks still needs to pay attention to the impact of factors such as overall economic performance, changes in external interest rates and the situation in the Middle East.

The Hang Seng Index rose for five consecutive days

Choice data show that since the beginning of this week, the Hang Seng Index has risen for five consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of 8%.Baccaratblackjack.8%.

The Hang Seng Index closed at 17651.15 points on April 26, up 2.12% from the previous day. Southbound funds had a net inflow of HK $1.174 billion on the same day.

From the perspective of the sector, the Wind Hong Kong concept index rose a lot, including security surveillance, Foxconn, sapphire, Chinese education, education, Internet health care, Chinese securities firms and other sectors rose by more than 6 per cent. In the Wind Hong Kong secondary industry index, automobiles and auto parts, technical hardware and equipment, diversified finance, retail and real estate led the gains.

At the same time, the Hang Seng Technology Index rose even more. The index rose 13.43% to 3718.27 from 3278.06 on Monday, according to Choice. In terms of individual stocks, Shangtang Technology led the sector to rise, with its share price rising 43.37% on April 26 and has doubled this week.

Eighteen companies in the Hang Seng Technology Index have risen more than 10 per cent so far this week, according to Wind. Five companies continue to rise by more than 20 per cent, including not only Shangtang-W, but also Kuaishou-W, bilibili-W, Meituan-W and JD.com Group-SW.

It is widely believed that the surge in the Hong Kong stock market is closely related to the relevant policies announced by regulators on Friday, which have boosted market confidence. On Friday, the CSRC announced five capital market co-operation measures with Hong Kong, including relaxing the range of eligible ETF products for stocks under the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, including REITs into the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, supporting the inclusion of RMB stock trading counters into the Hong Kong Stock Connect, optimizing mutual recognition arrangements and supporting mainland industry leading companies to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Yan Zhaojun, an international strategist at China and Thailand, told the Interface News that in terms of funds, the 20-day average short selling ratio of Hong Kong stocks remained at a high level of about 19%, superimposed by some foreign investors to upgrade the investment rating of Hong Kong stocks, which will help short sellers or foreign investors partially cover their positions. Hong Kong stocks have accumulated inflows of HK $73.1 billion since the beginning of the month and more than HK $80 billion in the past 20 trading days. Such a huge inflow cannot be ignored. The inflows of Hong Kong stocks have spread from central state-owned enterprises such as energy and telecommunications to the financial, consumer and technology sectors, indicating a positive change in domestic sentiment.

Zhou Hao of Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) believes that from a macro strategic point of view, the Hang Seng Index has outperformed the Nasdaq in the past three months, which is a phenomenon of concern. On the one hand, the market needs to clarify the main driving forces and factors that dominate the operation of the Hang Seng Index, which to a certain extent represent the new trend of the market; on the other hand, there seems to be a certain "negative correlation" between Hong Kong stocks and American stocks, which can also form a very important hedging trading strategy for the market.

Can the upward trend continue?

Wen Tina, a senior investment banker, told Interface News that Hong Kong stocks have shown an upward trend in recent days and have some support near 17000 points.

"with the introduction of many policies to support Hong Kong stocks, the frequency of interest rate cuts in the United States is likely to increase, and technology stocks rise as a whole, which will play a certain role in promoting Hong Kong stocks." He said.

In Wen Tianna's view, from the layout point of view, there may be more ETF listed in Hong Kong in the future, which will be helpful to the market to a certain extent, especially if the market has a special preference for some blue chips or technology stocks.

"it should be noted that the May Day Golden week is approaching, some domestic demand large-cap stocks, consumer plate will also have some market. However, the trend of external markets, including inflation and interest rates, is still not fully determined, so we need to pay attention to whether we can stand firm at 17000. " Wen Tianna said.

Cai Rui, chief strategist at BoCom International, believes that this rebound is not driven by profit expectations, but mainly by improved internal and external sentiment and short covering under high short selling sentiment, and the rebound is expected to continue for several months. Uncertainty is likely to remain in the second half of the year. Continue to be optimistic about the AI industrial chain and bulk, real estate industrial chain and mid-cap stocks.

Yan Zhaojun said frankly that there is little room for Hong Kong stocks to kill valuations again, and the current valuations are also at a historical bottom, but the conditions for valuation expansion need to be matched by improved earnings expectations and no longer rising US 10-year Treasury yields.

He said that it is expected that risk-free interest rates will be higher in the future, so it is difficult for Hong Kong stocks to return to the average level in the low interest rate environment of the past decade, and we have to get used to the fact that the valuation centre has shifted downwards. But the Hang Seng Index is now 8 times PE, and if the corporate earnings forecast for the second half of the year is revised up, it will not be difficult for PE to return to 10 times. The forecast PE of Hang Seng Ke Index is only 14.8 times, which is lower than that of NASDAQ 26.1 times, so there is more room to catch up.

Yan Zhaojun said that although the business confidence index has rebounded significantly, the consumer confidence index continues to be bottomed out at a low level, under the influence of the negative wealth effect brought about by the property downturn. A series of policies driven by production and supply to downstream demand and confidence recovery will take longer.

"now the downward revision pressure on the earnings of Hong Kong stocks is beginning to slow down, and it is expected that there will be upward revision kinetic energy in the future. This process will become more tortuous with the repetition of economic momentum, but if the overseas economic cycle resumes, it will eventually lead to the profits of Hong Kong stock companies. " Yan Zhaojun analyzed this.

Recently, Goldman Sachs strategists said in a report that they expect A-shares and H-shares to have 12 per cent and 8 per cent potential growth space respectively over the next 12 months. Be optimistic about consumer technology / Internet stocks because of a more favorable income growth environment and relatively good capital expenditure / cost control.

CICC believes that at present, the degree of overbought in the market has risen to a level second only to the high of March 12, and while the Hang Seng Technology Index and some individual stocks are rising, the proportion of short sales has increased, indicating that investors still have differences about the market. Taken together, the "weak balance" between short-term growth and policy expectations may keep the market volatile and wait for a new catalyst.