Produced | wonderful investment APP
Author | Li Yujia
Back to the big tree of Fosun Group, willing to hand over the wine industry.UltimatexpokermachineGot a report card at the bottom.
This year's Spring Festival is late, so most wine enterprises have made a good start with last year's low base, only willing to wine industry, Huangtai liquor industry, alcoholic wine, rock shares (rights protection) net profit is negative growth.
Miaotou warned in its column in March 2022 that the high valuation of the wine industry at that time depended heavily on its nationalized expansion, which would greatly reduce the valuation in the event of a slowdown in the future. Since the column was published, the share price has halved with the decline in performance growth.
According to public information, in 2020, Fosun signed an agreement with the people's Government of Shehong County in order to successfully acquire the stake in Tuopai Group, including greatly improving the operation of Shedi, stimulating local employment, and so on (Miaotou once sent a letter to the wine industry to verify this, but was willing not to give a positive response).
This news happens to explain the somewhat strange financial results of the wine industry. If the agreement is true for a period of three years, if you re-examine the wine industry at the current node, you should beware of this risk and pay attention to the possibility of a reversal.
# 01 Revenue may be worse this year
First of all, there is a steady growth rate of revenue in 2023, stained with Yelang ancient wine and the light of the table.
At the end of 2022, Fosun Group acquired Yelanggu winery 78UltimatexpokermachineWith a 95% stake, Ye Lang Gu made a contribution of 179 million yuan in revenue in 2023.
As a result, net revenue increased by 1.025 billion yuan to 7.081 billion yuan in 2023, a decent year-on-year growth rate of 16.93%. If you exclude the combined impact of 141 million yuan (179 million yuan * 78.95% of the equity ratio), the revenue growth rate will fall to 14.6% year-on-year in 2023.
Revenue deteriorated further in the first quarter of this year.
According to Wind, the total operating income of 20 listed liquor companies in the first quarter of this year was about 150.866 billion yuan, an increase of 15% over the same period last year, and the total net profit of their mother was about 61.987 billion yuan, up 16% from the same period last year.
In comparison, the wine industry, as one of the "six golden flowers of Sichuan wine", achieved 4.18% revenue growth and-3.37% return net profit growth during the Spring Festival liquor sales season.
The apparent reason is that the revenue growth of all its lines of liquor is very difficult.
In the first quarter, the revenue of medium and high-grade alcohol was 1.725 billion yuan, an increase of 3.31% over the same period last year, while that of ordinary wine was 239 million yuan, an increase of 0.85% over the same period last year.
At the end of last year, the inventory of goods in the wine industry's inventory was 576 million yuan, a net increase of 130 million yuan compared with the same period last year, much higher than the net added value in 2022, and the products seemed difficult to sell.
In fact, after Fosun took over, it was willing to focus on the brand positioning of "old wine". All the time, the national advertising marketing such as the Spring Festival Gala was in a high place with a high tone. Although the competition of sub-high-end liquor is very fierce nowadays, the high national popularity of its "taste willing", "she Zhi Dao" and "Tuo Brand" is competitive.
Therefore, the fundamental reason for not selling is not the product, but the wholesale channel that is willing to press the goods too much.
This can be supported by the company's channel revenue and contract liabilities.
In the first quarter, the company's wholesale agency channel revenue increased slightly by 2.78% compared with the same period last year. Compared with 797 million yuan in the first quarter of last year, the contract debt was only 235 million yuan at the end of the first quarter of this year, a decrease of 70.54% compared with the same period last year.
There is too much pressure on the channel inventory, in addition to the lower than expected on the demand side, it is more likely that Fosun is eager to use the high growth of 2021 to prove that it has caused the current situation.
Prior to this, the people's Government of Shehong County attached great importance to the new successors of Shehong County because they were willing to misappropriate their former employer, Tianyang Group, and be operated by ST. According to public information, in 2020, Fosun signed an agreement with the people's Government of Shehong County in order to successfully acquire shares, including greatly improving the business situation of Shedi, stimulating local employment, and so on. Willing not to give a positive response).
Later, in 2021, the group grew at a very high speed, and now it seems likely that it has overdrawn the channel capacity in exchange for it.
Many macro forecasts point out that a significant repair of business activity may not come until the fourth quarter of this year.
Therefore, with the slow recovery of sub-high-end prices and the urgent need to digest the inventory of the channel, the revenue growth of the wine industry in 2024 will still be low, and the price control will still be the main theme.
According to the latest channel research, this year is willing to control the price of sub-high-end products, and drive mid-range liquor to drive revenue growth. For example, the way of the second largest single house in the first quarter maintained rapid growth, with a card price of 200 yuan, which benefited more in this year's consumer environment. Tuopai Premium T68 maintained rapid growth in the first quarter and was identified as the core single of Tuopai this year.
Generally speaking, a good start to the first quarter is crucial to the full-year revenue of wine companies. From 2021 to 2023, the fundamentals of the wine industry gradually stabilized under the empowerment of Fosun Group, and the proportion of revenue in the first quarter to annual revenue fluctuated around 30%.
Therefore, we optimistically assume that the off-season revenue of liquor in the second and third quarters is the same as that of last year, and that the revenue in the first and fourth quarters is low before and then high, so the proportion of revenue in the first quarter of this year has dropped to 27%, and the total revenue in 2024 is about 7.798 billion yuan. the year-on-year growth rate is only 10.12%, nearly 7 percentage points less than the growth rate in 2023.
# 02 net profit may be reversed
The decline in net profit in 2023 is mainly due to a much higher increase in total operating costs than revenue.
And the substantial increase in total operating costs does not come from the substantial increase in marketing actions such as advertising, but from the cost of employing people, which is somewhat abnormal under the general trend of reducing costs and increasing efficiency in various industries.
The operating cost of dismantling the wine industry in the past three years can be seen that the total operating income increased by 1.025 billion yuan in 2023, while the net increase in total operating cost was as high as 935 million yuan. The increase in total cost in addition to the necessary tax payment, the "pot" must be borne by sales fees and management fees.
After further disassembly, it was found that the substantial increase in sales expenses was accounted for by the increase in the salary of employees of 154 million yuan, and the net increase in advertising expenses was only 59 million yuan.
The same is true of management expenses. An increase of $17 million out of $49 million comes from an increase in staff salaries.
On the one hand, the increase in employee compensation comes from the substantial increase in the size of employees.
In 2023, the total number of employees in Shede Wine Industry will be 9816, a net increase of 940 people from 2022. The per capita income is about 721,400 yuan, which is only higher than that of Huangtai Liquor, Jinseed Liquor and Laobaigan Liquor.
In sharp contrast, Luzhou Laojiao, whose revenue is more than four times that of Shede, but the total number of employees is less than 40% of Shede. The per capita income is 8.0194 million yuan, which is 11 times that of Shede.
On the other hand, the significant increase in employee salary has greatly tilted the proportion towards senior management.
In 2023, the per capita salary of Shede Liquor employees will be 167,000 yuan, which is only at the middle level in the industry. The top three executives 'salary of 9.3281 million yuan is second only to Gujing Gong Liquor, ranking second in the industry, 3.7 times that of Moutai executives and 4.7 times that of Wuliangye.
According to the financial report, in 2023, the salary of Pu Jizhou, chairman of the "veteran" of Shede Liquor Industry, increased by 17.7% year-on-year, and the salary of Vice President Rao Jiaquan increased by 43.3% year-on-year. Zou Qingli's salary, vice president and chief financial officer of Fosun Group, increased by 35.7% year-on-year, and Luo Chao's salary, vice president, increased by 63% year-on-year, both of which were much higher than the growth rate in 2023.
In 2022, Shede launched an equity incentive plan, and the performance appraisal targets for 2022 and 2023 have been achieved. If you want to further unlock it in 2024, you need to achieve operating income of no less than 10.02 billion yuan or net profit of no less than 2.05 billion yuan.
This means that in 2024, either the company's operating income will increase by 41.5% year-on-year, and the possibility is basically zero. Either the parent's net profit will increase by 279 million yuan, which is not difficult to achieve.
If the public information is true, that is, the agreement signed with the People's Government of Shehong County when Fosun acquired Shede is for a period of three years, then the agreement will end in 2023. The total net increase in sales expenses and management expenses in 2023 will be approximately 323 million yuan. If some redundancy can be removed by reducing costs and increasing efficiency, even if the net profit attributable to the parent company is only 323 million yuan more, this year's net profit attributable to the parent company will grow year-on-year. Can reach 18.2%.
As of May 14, Shede Liquor's PE-TTM had only 14 times left, which already reflected the poor performance in the first quarter. With today's brand awareness, product matrix and channels, Shede wine industry can still "survive", but the real reversal of its profit side will have to wait for the company's more powerful reforms to implement.