In recent yearsBlockchainbasedgamesBlockchainbasedgamesChina is committed to compressing the financial attributes of real estate and putting more resources into high-end manufacturing and the real economy, but this will also make growth more difficult and profit margins will be compressed. In order to solve the debt problem, domestic measures may be taken through rising prices of physical assets or fluctuations in the prices of financial assets. Historical experience shows that the stock market has potential at this time, especially state-owned assets can help solve the debt problem.

In the future environment of "definancialization" and shrinking profit margins, this is a rare opportunity. In addition, opportunities in the consumer industry may need to be captured from the perspective of manufacturing costs, while manufacturing industries with a concentration of growth stocks need to apply the analytical framework of cyclical industries. It is suggested that we should pay attention to the opportunities in circulation (trade and retail, express logistics) and the middle and upstream raw material industries related to consumption (such as chemical fiber, papermaking, agricultural and sideline products processing, etc.) in the process of reducing costs.

From the perspective of industrial themes, military industry and robots (300024) may be more potential themes. The degree of congestion of market trading is low, and there may be more room for market sentiment to heat up. In the past five years, the performance of growth value style is positively correlated with the real interest rate difference between China and the United States. Therefore, it can be judged that China and the United States may usher in the resonance of the loose monetary policy cycle. On the one hand, the loose monetary policy in the United States has led to the weakening of the US dollar, the rebound in emerging market currency exchange rates and commodity prices, and the overall relaxation of financial conditions caused by loose monetary policies abroad, which will accelerate the rebound of inflation in China. On the other hand, China's central bank uses monetary policy tools to inject liquidity into the market, in conjunction with active fiscal policy, to stimulate the economy through counter-cyclical regulation, which will promote the decline of domestic nominal interest rates.

The combination of the two will lead to the decline of domestic real interest rates, reduce financing costs, promote the rise of risk appetite, and the growth style may become the main line of the equity market in the period of internal and external loose money resonance. Although US bond interest rates may fluctuate in the short term, the downward trend is more certain and the RMB exchange rate is expected to stabilize and rebound. In the context of the demand for easy money to broad credit transmission, the probability of interest rate reduction is still large.

Historically, when the Fed monetary policy turned loose and the domestic monetary policy also adopted loose monetary policy, the growth style was strong. Market risk premium indicators have sent a positive signal that in the long run, there is still investment potential to return to high-quality tracks with relatively high performance prices and those that exceed the standard of decline. The parity and valuation of major broad-based assets have reflected that the current market is in a very low position and the margin of safety is adequate. While the prosperity of the upstream resource goods industry has declined slightly, the mid-stream manufacturing industry and some TMT segments are expected to bring surprises.

Focus on policy-supported industries such as robotics, consumer electronics and semiconductor equipment, as well as opportunities such as new energy vehicles and lithium batteries related to export themes. The consumer industry is expected to show flexibility in the differentiation and can focus on the targets of strong brands such as home appliances, textiles and clothing, beauty care and other strong brands from the bottom up, while focusing on the paper industry with valuation and repair opportunities. Earnings in supporting industries and dividend assets are expected to remain stable overall in 2023. In the context of the current wave of the technology industry, in addition to the main line of the economy, valuation performance-to-price ratio and high dividends are still the direction of long-term layout, focusing on the direction of growth styles such as electronics and aerospace.

Plate name military industry, express concept, consumer electronics, robot concept, chemical fiber industry, logistics industry keywords financial attributes, book growth, profit space bullish (bearish) because historical experience shows that the stock market in solving the debt problem of state-owned assets has the potential to broadcast in late trading: the valuation performance-price ratio is the direction of layout and the risk hint of the writer: the above is only the point of view of the author or guest. It does not represent any position of Hexun and does not constitute any investment advice related to Hexun. Before making any investment decision, investors should consider the risk factors related to investment products according to their own circumstances and consult professional investment advisers if necessary. Hexun tries its best but cannot confirm the authenticity, accuracy and originality of the above content, and Hexun does not make any guarantee or commitment.